Farmer聽Sentiment聽Reaches Four-Year High in May
Farmer聽sentiment聽improved for the second consecutive month in May, reaching its highest level since May 2021. The Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer聽rose 10 points to a reading of 158, up from 148 in April. Both the Index of Current Conditions聽and the Index of Future Expectations聽contributed to the increase, with the current conditions index up 5 points to 146 and the future expectations index jumping 12 points to 164.
The sentiment聽boost was driven by a more optimistic outlook on U.S. agricultural exports and a less negative view of how tariffs will impact farm income in 2025. The May barometer survey took place May 12-16.
A key factor contributing to this month鈥檚 climb in farmer聽sentiment聽could be linked to a more positive view of the U.S.鈥檚 long-run agricultural trade prospects. In May, 52% of producers said they expect agricultural exports to increase over the next five years, surging from 33% in April and the highest percentage of positive responses to this question since November 2020. Meanwhile, 12% said they believe exports will decline, down from 24% the previous month.
To better understand U.S. producer views on trade, the May survey revisited a barometer question first asked in the fall of 2020. Producers were asked to rate their agreement with the statement, 鈥淔ree trade benefits agriculture and most other American industries.鈥 On average, 49% of respondents 鈥渟trongly agreed鈥 with the statement during the fall 2020 surveys.
In contrast, only 28% of respondents chose 鈥渟trongly agreed鈥 in May 2025. Additional evidence of changing views comes from responses to questions about the impact of U.S. tariff policies on their farms鈥 income.
While the uptick in sentiment聽is certainly notable, it鈥檚 important to recognize that producers are navigating a complex mix of optimism and caution. Producers鈥 expectations for exports and farm income have improved, but concerns remain about capital investment and, for some operations, the potential for labor shortages due to immigration policy changes.
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