Only 12% of respondents indicated that their farm operations were better off in June than they had been a year ago. Looking ahead to the next 12 months, 22% of respondents expect their farms to be better off financially a year from now. The Farm Capital Investment Index fell 1 point to 40, its lowest level since September 2024.

This month鈥檚 survey included two questions related to the use of artificial intelligence (AI) or data-driven tools in agriculture. The first question asked survey respondents what they viewed as the main benefit of using these tools. Approximately 23% of respondents indicated that an increase in production would be the main benefit (see Figure 5). Reducing labor and reducing risk or uncertainty were chosen by 14% and 11% of respondents, respectively. Meanwhile, 52% of respondents said they did not see a meaningful benefit. A second question asked whether recommendations arising from data-driven tools would be difficult to follow. Approximately 63% of respondents indicated that recommendations would be sometimes difficult to follow, while 22% indicated that recommendations would often be difficult to follow.

Since July 2025, producers have been asked whether they think the U.S. is headed in the 鈥渞ight direction鈥� or on the 鈥渨rong track.鈥� After averaging 71% over the last six months of 2025, the percentage of producers who reported that the U.S. was headed in the 鈥渞ight direction鈥� was 52% in May and 53% in June (see Figure 8).

Wrapping Up

Farmer sentiment decreased from 119 in May to 113 in June, with declines in sentiment regarding both current conditions and future expectations. The percentage of producers who expected good times over the next five years was 32% in June, which is 17 percentage points lower than in the June 2025 survey results. There continued to be a large disparity in expectations between crop and livestock producers. Approximately 25% of respondents expected good times for crop producers, while 68% expected good times for livestock producers.

Input costs remained a top concern, with high input costs identified as the most important factor limiting improvements in financial performance. Despite concerns about the future, respondents remained optimistic regarding both short-term and long-term land values.

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Farmers鈥� rating of financial conditions on their farms was virtually unchanged in July, compared to June, as the Farm Financial Conditions Index rose just one point to 87 vs. a reading of 86 in June. When asked to look ahead one year, there was a one percentage point increase in farmers expecting farm financial conditions to improve in July vs. June and, correspondingly, a one-point decline in the percentage of farmers expecting conditions to worsen. And farmers鈥� longer-term perspective on the U.S. agricultural economy improved somewhat in July, as the percentage of respondents expecting bad times in the upcoming 5 years fell from 41% in June to 39% in July.

Farmers鈥� top concern for their farming operations in the upcoming year is still higher input costs, chosen by 37% of respondents in this month鈥檚 survey. The number two concern for this month鈥檚 survey respondents was rising interest rates, chosen by nearly one out of four (24%) producers followed by lower output prices chosen by 19% of farmers in the survey. Given the volatility in commodity prices, especially crop prices, this spring and early summer it鈥檚 notable that more producers expressed concern about rising interest rates than declining output prices.

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鈥淲e鈥檙e now expanding that capability to all the public soybean breeding programs in the region,鈥� said Rainey, professor of agronomy, who also directs the Purdue Soybean Center. Soon, she and Cherkauer will begin receiving drone imagery collected on a panel of 1,200 soybean varieties that breeders have planted in 11 states across the U.S. north-central region.

鈥淗ere at Purdue, we鈥檒l do all the processing and modification of the images to predict biomass,鈥� she said.

The effort is part of the SOYGEN3 (Science Optimized Yield Gains across ENvironments) project. Consisting of eight universities, including Purdue, SOYGEN3 has more than $900,000 in funding from the North Central Soybean Research Program.

鈥淭he overarching goal in this experiment is to develop methods and models for selecting soybeans that will be high yielding in future extreme environments under climate-change scenarios,鈥� Rainey said. 鈥淲e know that the future environments we鈥檙e going to grow soybean in are different from the ones we have now because climate is changing.

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Higher input costs are still the number one concern among survey respondents with the shift in U.S. monetary policy rising to the forefront as an issue among U.S. producers. This month 44% of respondents chose 鈥渉igher input costs鈥� as their number one concern, down from 53% last month. Second on the list of producers鈥� concerns for the upcoming year was 鈥渞ising interest rates鈥�, chosen by 23% of respondents, up from 14% in August.

This month鈥檚 Farm Financial Performance Index showed that compared to earlier this year, producers clearly feel better about their farm鈥檚 financial performance.

The Farm Capital Investment Index declined to a record low of 31 in September as producers continue to indicate that they do not view this as a 鈥済ood time鈥� to make large investments in their farming operations. Despite that negative perspective, the percentage of producers who plan to reduce their farm machinery purchases declined again this month, down 2 points compared to responses in August. Since peaking in March at 62 percent, the share of producers who plan to reduce their machinery purchases compared to a year earlier has been declining, dipping to 47% this month.

For the third month in a row, producers overwhelmingly said it was primarily because of the increase in prices for farm machinery and new construction. However, interest rates are starting to become a factor influencing producers鈥� decision making. Throughout the summer the percentage of farmers who chose 鈥渞ising interest rates鈥� as a primary reason for thinking it鈥檚 a bad time to make large investments rose from 14% in August to 21% in September.

Producers are also becoming increasingly worried about the impact of rising interest rates on their farm operations with more of them citing it as a reason why they think now is not a good time to make large investments.

The Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer sentiment index is calculated each month from 400 U.S. agricultural producers鈥� responses to a telephone survey. 

See complete survey results

The Farm Capital Investment Index, which reflects farmers鈥� willingness to invest in equipment and other capital, ticked up to 72, which concluded 2019 at the highest investment index value for the year.

Although the overall reading changed little, the survey revealed a shift in producers鈥� perspective regarding both their farms鈥� and the production ag sector鈥檚 economic health.

Producers expressed less confidence than a month earlier about current economic conditions; the Index of Current Conditions declined by 12 points to 141 from November to December.

In contrast, producers鈥� expectations for the future remained strong; the Index of Future Expectations rose slightly from 153 in November to 155.

A slim majority (52 percent) of farmers on the December barometer survey indicated that their farm鈥檚 financial performance in 2019 matched their initial budget projections.

To better assess the level of financial stress among U.S. farms, researchers asked producers in November and December whether they expected their farm鈥檚 operating loan in 2020 to be larger than, about the same, or smaller than in 2019. About one in five farmers expect to have a larger operating loan in 2020. About three in 10 of those operations indicated the reason for the larger operating loan is that they expect to carry over unpaid operating debt from 2019. Responses to these two questions suggest that about 6 percent of farms surveyed in late 2019 were experiencing significant financial stress.

The Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer is a nationwide measure of the health of the national agricultural economy. Results are based on responses from a survey of 400 agricultural producers.

Although the barometer鈥檚 decline was small, there was a relatively large sentiment shift among ag producers as they were noticeably more pessimistic about current conditions on their farms and in the U.S. ag economy but somewhat more optimistic about future economic conditions, both compared to one month earlier.

The Index of Current Conditions declined from a reading of 122 in August to 100 in September. This was in contrast to the Index of Future Expectations, which rose 6 points compared to August, with a September reading of 131.
The barometer is based on results from a nationwide telephone survey of 400 U.S. crop and livestock producers.

Concerns about current economic conditions on their farms spilled over into producers鈥� perspective on making large investments in their operations.

The Farm Capital Investment Index, which is based upon a question posed to farmers each month regarding the advisability of making large investments in their farming operations in items such as machinery or buildings, declined to 47.

This was down 9 points compared to August and 20 points below the Farm Capital Investment Index鈥檚 highest reading of this calendar year, observed in July when crop prices were near their 2019 peak.