Optimism about export prospects over the next five years also improved this month, reaching 140 鈥� the highest since December 2025. Higher input costs remained the biggest concern this month.

This month鈥檚 survey included three questions about operator skills. The first question had respondents indicate the skill that generated the most return on investment on their farm. Production skills were selected by 29%, followed by financial management and analysis at 23%, strategic planning at 22%, selling products at 14%, and buying inputs at 11%.

The second question asked respondents which skill their farm needed the most improvement in. Strategic planning was selected by 28% of respondents, followed by selling products at 20%, buying inputs at 19%, financial management and analysis at 17%, and production at 16%.

The third question asked respondents to indicate which skills they believed had the most potential for improvement using artificial intelligence. The top three choices, in order, were strategic planning (32%), financial management and analysis (28%), and production (18%) (see Figure 6).

Summary: Farmer sentiment increased again in August, with the largest improvement coming from the future expectations. The Index of Current Conditions increased by 1 point, while the Index of Future Expectations increased by 11 points. Respondents were more optimistic about their financial prospects and land values in the upcoming year and exports in the next five years, but were less confident about making new investments in machinery and buildings.

Source: | Read the complete August report 

Only 13% of respondents indicated that their farm operations were better off financially in July than they had been a year ago. However, looking ahead to the next 12 months, 23% of respondents expect their farms to be better off financially a year from now, compared with 24% who expect their farms to be worse off. The Farm Capital Investment Index increased by 10 points to 50, its highest level since March.

This month鈥檚 survey also examined agricultural exports and attitudes toward new foreign export markets. Approximately 42% of respondents expected agricultural exports to increase over the next five years, while 13% expected exports to decline (see Figure 6). Respondents were also asked whether it was likely or unlikely that new foreign export markets would open to American agricultural goods in the next five years. Approximately 56% of respondents indicated that this development was likely. When this question was asked last July, 64% thought the prospect for new export markets was likely.

Since July 2025, producers have been asked whether they think the U.S. is headed in the 鈥渞ight direction鈥� or on the 鈥渨rong track.鈥� After averaging 71% during the last six months of 2025, the percentage of producers who said the U.S. was headed in the 鈥渞ight direction鈥� was 54% in July, compared with 53% in June and 52% in May.

Source: | Read July’s complete report

The Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer Index climbed to 139 in November, 10 points higher than in October and the highest barometer reading since June of this year. The improvement in farmer sentiment was attributable to producers鈥� more optimistic outlook for the future, as the November Future Expectations Index reading of 144 was 15 points higher than in October, whereas the Current Conditions Index fell 2 points to a reading of 128.

This month鈥檚 survey was the first survey conducted since the late October announcement of a trade pact between the U.S. and China that included provisions for increasing U.S. exports of agricultural products to China, and survey respondents were notably more optimistic about future prospects for U.S. agricultural exports. Sentiment was also buoyed by a sharp rise in crop prices from mid-October to mid-November.

Recent barometer surveys have included two questions that focus on farmers鈥� attitudes regarding 2025鈥檚 policy shifts. A majority of respondents, 59% in November and 58% in October, said they expect that use of tariffs by the U.S. will ultimately strengthen the agricultural economy. However, that is lower than last spring, when 70% of respondents said they expected tariffs to strengthen the agricultural economy in the long run. More producers in recent months reported being uncertain regarding the long-run impact of the U.S. tariff policy. In October and November, 16% and 17% of survey respondents, respectively, said they were uncertain about the impact that tariff policy will have, roughly double the 8% of respondents who felt that way in April and May. Meanwhile, two-thirds (67%) of farmers in the November survey said the U.S. is headed in the 鈥渞ight direction鈥�, down from the 72% who felt that way in October.

Summary

Farmer sentiment improved in November, with the rise attributable to an improvement in the Index of Future Expectations. Strengthening crop prices contributed to the improved outlook for the future, as did a more optimistic outlook for agricultural exports. Producers were more optimistic about farmland values in both the short and long run this month. Most farmers continue to think it is likely that they will receive supplemental income support from the USDA in the form of an MFP payment if prices are negatively impacted by U.S. tariff policies. A majority of producers expect U.S. tariff policies to prove beneficial to the agricultural economy in the long run, but the percentage of respondents who said they are uncertain about the impact was roughly double the percentage who said they were uncertain last spring. Finally, two-thirds of producers said that 鈥渢hings in the U.S. today are headed in the right direction鈥�, but that was lower than a month earlier, while the percentage who chose 鈥渨rong track鈥� rose from 28% to 33%.

Read the full report here:

While optimism grew in the Index of Current Conditions, crop producers remain cautious, citing tighter margins and weaker profit expectations. The Index of Future Expectations held steady, suggesting farmers remain uncertain about what lies ahead. This month鈥檚 Ag Economy Barometer report highlights how diverging trends between livestock and crop sectors are shaping overall sentiment聽across U.S. agriculture.

For October, politics emerged as a frequent topic of discussion, likely influenced by the elections. Many producers expressed worries about potential policy changes impacting their farms and the agricultural economy, with regulation, environment and taxes featured prominently alongside price concerns.

When specifically asked about their worries for the upcoming year, respondents continued to point to higher input costs and lower output prices as their primary concerns. The trend of producers鈥� decreasing concern over interest rates continued this month, with only 15% citing it as a top worry in October, down from 26% in late 2023.

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Michael Langemeier, director of Purdue鈥檚 Center for Commercial Agriculture, says the survey was taken when the September supply and demand report was released, and it contributed to the weaker outlook.

鈥淎bout 70 percent of those we survey are crop producers,鈥� he says. 鈥淲hen you look at the net returns in the crop sector, they鈥檙e not very good right now. We expected that group to be relatively pessimistic, drawing down that index of current conditions.鈥�

One factor that appears to be influencing farmer sentiment is farmers鈥� perspectives on the multitude of policy changes implemented in the U.S. in 2025. For example, a substantial majority (71%) of U.S. farmers in this month鈥檚 survey reported that things in the U.S. today are 鈥渉eaded in the right direction.鈥� However, when asked specifically about whether they expect the increased use of tariffs to strengthen or weaken the U.S. agricultural economy, just over half (51%) said they expected tariffs to strengthen the agricultural economy in the long run.

Over 80% of producers think it鈥檚 likely or very likely that, in the event that a trade war negatively impacts commodity prices, a program similar to 2019鈥檚 MFP will help compensate for agricultural product price weakness.

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The sentiment聽boost was driven by a more optimistic outlook on U.S. agricultural exports and a less negative view of how tariffs will impact farm income in 2025. The May barometer survey took place May 12-16.

A key factor contributing to this month鈥檚 climb in farmer聽sentiment聽could be linked to a more positive view of the U.S.鈥檚 long-run agricultural trade prospects. In May, 52% of producers said they expect agricultural exports to increase over the next five years, surging from 33% in April and the highest percentage of positive responses to this question since November 2020. Meanwhile, 12% said they believe exports will decline, down from 24% the previous month.

To better understand U.S. producer views on trade, the May survey revisited a barometer question first asked in the fall of 2020. Producers were asked to rate their agreement with the statement, 鈥淔ree trade benefits agriculture and most other American industries.鈥� On average, 49% of respondents 鈥渟trongly agreed鈥� with the statement during the fall 2020 surveys.

In contrast, only 28% of respondents chose 鈥渟trongly agreed鈥� in May 2025. Additional evidence of changing views comes from responses to questions about the impact of U.S. tariff policies on their farms鈥� income.

While the uptick in sentiment聽is certainly notable, it鈥檚 important to recognize that producers are navigating a complex mix of optimism and caution. Producers鈥� expectations for exports and farm income have improved, but concerns remain about capital investment and, for some operations, the potential for labor shortages due to immigration policy changes.

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Producers in November were more optimistic about their farms鈥� financial performance than a month earlier, as the Farm Financial Performance Index climbed 14 points to a reading of 92. In particular, the percentage of producers who expect better financial performance this year rose to 24% from just 16% in October. A sharp rise in crop prices from mid-October to mid-November was a key reason behind the expectation for better financial performance.

Producers became more optimistic about future agricultural trade prospects in November. Responding to a question included in every barometer survey since January 2019, just 7% of respondents said they expect U.S. agricultural exports to weaken in the next 5 years, down from 14% who felt that way in October and down from 30% who expected exports to weaken back in March. In a related question, 47% of corn producers responding to the November survey said they expect soybean exports to rise over the next 5 years, while just 8% said they expect soybean exports to decline. The improved trade outlook appeared to contribute to this month鈥檚 sentiment improvement.

For the second month in a row, the Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index rose, reaching 116 in November, 3 points above a month earlier and 10 points higher than in September. Farmers鈥� long-run perspective on farmland values also rose this month as the Long-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index climbed 4 points to a reading of 165, a new record high for the index. This month鈥檚 survey also asked corn producers about their expectations for cash rental rates for farmland in 2026. Nearly three-fourths of respondents (74%) said they expect rates in 2026 to be about the same as this year, which was very consistent with responses received in both July and August. The relatively strong cash rent outlook provides some support for farmland values.

Recent barometer surveys have included two questions that focus on farmers鈥� attitudes regarding 2025鈥檚 policy shifts. A majority of respondents, 59% in November and 58% in October, said they expect that use of tariffs by the U.S. will ultimately strengthen the agricultural economy. However, that is lower than last spring, when 70% of respondents said they expected tariffs to strengthen the agricultural economy in the long run. More producers in recent months reported being uncertain regarding the long-run impact of the U.S. tariff policy. In October and November, 16% and 17% of survey respondents, respectively, said they were uncertain about the impact that tariff policy will have, roughly double the 8% of respondents who felt that way in April and May. Meanwhile, two-thirds (67%) of farmers in the November survey said the U.S. is headed in the 鈥渞ight direction鈥�, down from the 72% who felt that way in October.

Wrapping Up

Farmer sentiment improved in November, with the rise attributable to an improvement in the Index of Future Expectations. Strengthening crop prices contributed to the improved outlook for the future, as did a more optimistic outlook for agricultural exports. Producers were more optimistic about farmland values in both the short and long run this month. A majority of producers expect U.S. tariff policies to prove beneficial to the agricultural economy in the long run, but the percentage of respondents who said they are uncertain about the impact was roughly double the percentage who said they were uncertain last spring. Finally, two-thirds of producers said that 鈥渢hings in the U.S. today are headed in the right direction鈥�, but that was lower than a month earlier, while the percentage who chose 鈥渨rong track鈥� rose from 28% to 33%.

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This month鈥檚 decline in the barometer takes farmer sentiment back to the average level observed from fall 2015 to winter 2016, a period when farm incomes were declining sharply. The weakness in farmer sentiment could indicate that farmers expect this year鈥檚 farm income downturn to last for an extended period. Data collection for the August survey took place from August 12-16, 2024.

Over the last several months, farmers鈥� concerns about weakening commodity prices have become more evident in barometer surveys. In the August survey, producers鈥� concerns about commodity prices nearly eclipsed what has consistently been their top concern: high input prices. This month, 30% of respondents picked lower commodity prices as a top concern compared to 33% who chose high input costs. This was a marked departure from a year earlier when just 20% of survey respondents pointed to weak commodity prices as a top concern for their farm operation. At the same time, fewer respondents chose rising interest rates as a top concern.

The August Farm Financial Performance Index fell 9 points below a month earlier and was 14 points lower than a year ago. This month鈥檚 reading was the weakest response to the financial performance question since July 2020, when COVID-related lockdowns still dominated the headlines. Consistent with expectations for weak financial conditions, producers again signaled that the investment climate in production agriculture is also poor as the Farm Capital Investment Index fell 7 points to 31. This month鈥檚 investment index was also 6 points lower than a year earlier and matched the index鈥檚 all-time lowest reading.

Despite concerns about the farm income outlook, most farmers in our survey still say they expect farmland cash rental rates for the 2025 crop year to remain unchanged. This month, 70% of U.S. crop farmers in our survey said they expect farmland cash rental rates to stay about the same, with just 16% of respondents reporting that they anticipate declining lease rates.

Wrapping Up

Farmer sentiment weakened sharply in August as the Ag Economy Barometer index fell 13 points compared to July. The August reading of 100 places farmer sentiment on par with sentiment in late 2015 and early 2016 when the U.S. ag economy was in the early stages of a downturn.

Farmers were most pessimistic about near-term conditions, as the current index fell 17 points below a month earlier. Sentiment weakness was driven by expectations for weak farm financial performance and extended to a weak outlook for capital expenditures by farm operations. Although the short-term farmland index remained above 100, signaling that more survey respondents still expect values to rise over the next year than look for values to decline, it鈥檚 clear that farmers are less optimistic about farmland values this summer than in recent years. Notably, the short-term farmland index posted its lowest reading since spring 2020.

Despite the weakness in farmer sentiment and expectations for weak farm financial performance, 70% of crop farmers in this month鈥檚 survey said they expect farmland cash rental rates to remain about the same in 2025 as in 2024.

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The Farm Financial Performance Index rose three points in June to a reading of 85. There鈥檚 been a tendency in recent years for producers鈥� financial performance expectations to bottom out in spring and improve as the spring crop growing season progresses. This year seems to be following that pattern as the index has risen nine points over the last two months.

The capital investment outlook weakened slightly in June as the Farm Capital Investment Index fell three points to a reading of 32, which leaves the index just one point higher than its all-time low. More producers this month said now is a bad time to make large investments than in May, with no change in the percentage of producers who said it鈥檚 a good time to invest. Interest rate concerns appear to be affecting farmers鈥� investment outlook. Over the last several months, the percentage of producers citing rising interest rates as a top concern for their farm operation has been rising. In February, 18% of survey respondents chose rising interest rates as a top concern.

Once again, this month鈥檚 survey asked respondents if they or one of their landowners had been approached about a possible Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) project from an ethanol plant. This month, 8% of respondents said they had been in contact about a CCS project. The vast majority (93%) of respondents who had contact with a company about a CCS project reported that payment rates offered were less than $25 per acre, with just 8% of producers reporting payment rate offers of $50 or more per acre. 

Sixteen percent of respondents this month said that, within the last six months, they had discussed with a company a farmland lease for solar energy production. That鈥檚 down slightly compared to April and May, when 19 and 20 percent of respondents, respectively, reported solar leasing discussions taking place. Lease rates have been rising since we first collected data on solar leasing in 2021. This month, 69% of respondents said they were offered a long-term lease rate of $1,000 per acre or more, up from just 27% in June 2021. This month鈥檚 survey included a more detailed list of lease rate options for respondents to choose from, and 27% of respondents said they were offered a lease rate of $1,500 per acre or more. Fifty-eight percent of respondents said the lease contract they discussed included an annual escalator clause. Among those respondents who reported discussing an escalator clause, the most common escalator range was from 2 to 3 percent per year.

Wrapping Up

Weaker expectations for the future were responsible for a modest decline in this month鈥檚 Ag Economy Barometersentiment index. Farmers long-term farmland value outlook weakened slightly in June after approaching an all-time high last month. The percentage of farmers reporting that they are concerned about rising interest rates has been increasing, which could be one reason why farmers鈥� future expectations, along with their outlook on capital investments and long-term farmland values, all dipped compared to a month earlier. In areas of the country where leasing of farmland for solar energy production is taking place, lease rates being offered continue to rise. This month, 69% of respondents who reported a solar leasing discussion said they were offered a long-term solar lease rate of $1,000 per acre or more.

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The Farm Financial Performance Index climbed to 82, up 6 points compared to April. The index is based on a question that asks producers to compare their farm鈥檚 expected financial performance to last year. Despite this month鈥檚 improvement in the index, it remained 15 points lower than at the end of last year indicating that producers still expect 2024 to be a more challenging year financially than 2023.

Producers鈥� outlook on capital investments improved in May, but producers maintained a cautious attitude towards investments as the Farm Capital Investment Index came in at a reading of 35. Although the 4-point rise pulled the index off its all-time low reading of 31, this month鈥檚 survey still indicated that 77% of respondents feel it鈥檚 a bad time to make large investments, while just 12% of respondents said it was a good time to invest. Interest rates and relatively high prices for farm machinery and new construction were the two primary reasons cited for this being a bad time to make large investments. Among those producers who think it鈥檚 a good time to invest, nearly half (45%) said they felt that way because of high inventories at machinery dealers.

Interest in leasing farmland for solar energy production continues to rise. In both the April and May surveys approximately 20% of survey respondents, up from just 12% in March, said they have discussed leasing farmland for solar energy production in the last six months. Like April鈥檚 survey results, over half (55%) of respondents said they were offered a long-term lease rate of $1,000 per acre or more, and 27% said they were offered more than $1,250 per acre. Combining results from both the April and May barometer surveys, approximately 30% of respondents who have discussed leasing with a company have signed a solar energy lease on farmland they control. 

Summary: Farmer sentiment improved in May following a sharp decline in April. Increases in crop prices provided producers with a somewhat more optimistic financial outlook, which helped boost producer sentiment. Although sentiment and financial performance expectations improved in May compared to April, they both remain weak from a longer-term perspective. There was a small uptick in the Short-Term Farmland Value Expectation Index in May, but sentiment about farmland values in 2024 remains weaker than last fall. Interest in leasing farmland for solar energy production continues to rise as 1 out of 5 survey respondents reported discussing a solar energy lease with a company in just the last six months.

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