Optimism about export prospects over the next five years also improved this month, reaching 140 鈥� the highest since December 2025. Higher input costs remained the biggest concern this month.

This month鈥檚 survey included three questions about operator skills. The first question had respondents indicate the skill that generated the most return on investment on their farm. Production skills were selected by 29%, followed by financial management and analysis at 23%, strategic planning at 22%, selling products at 14%, and buying inputs at 11%.

The second question asked respondents which skill their farm needed the most improvement in. Strategic planning was selected by 28% of respondents, followed by selling products at 20%, buying inputs at 19%, financial management and analysis at 17%, and production at 16%.

The third question asked respondents to indicate which skills they believed had the most potential for improvement using artificial intelligence. The top three choices, in order, were strategic planning (32%), financial management and analysis (28%), and production (18%) (see Figure 6).

Summary: Farmer sentiment increased again in August, with the largest improvement coming from the future expectations. The Index of Current Conditions increased by 1 point, while the Index of Future Expectations increased by 11 points. Respondents were more optimistic about their financial prospects and land values in the upcoming year and exports in the next five years, but were less confident about making new investments in machinery and buildings.

Source: | Read the complete August report 

Only 13% of respondents indicated that their farm operations were better off financially in July than they had been a year ago. However, looking ahead to the next 12 months, 23% of respondents expect their farms to be better off financially a year from now, compared with 24% who expect their farms to be worse off. The Farm Capital Investment Index increased by 10 points to 50, its highest level since March.

This month鈥檚 survey also examined agricultural exports and attitudes toward new foreign export markets. Approximately 42% of respondents expected agricultural exports to increase over the next five years, while 13% expected exports to decline (see Figure 6). Respondents were also asked whether it was likely or unlikely that new foreign export markets would open to American agricultural goods in the next five years. Approximately 56% of respondents indicated that this development was likely. When this question was asked last July, 64% thought the prospect for new export markets was likely.

Since July 2025, producers have been asked whether they think the U.S. is headed in the 鈥渞ight direction鈥� or on the 鈥渨rong track.鈥� After averaging 71% during the last six months of 2025, the percentage of producers who said the U.S. was headed in the 鈥渞ight direction鈥� was 54% in July, compared with 53% in June and 52% in May.

Source: | Read July’s complete report

Farmer sentiment dropped again in May as the Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer (AEB) Index declined from 121 points in April to 119. The Current Conditions Index fell by 8 points, while the Future Expectations Index increased by 1 point This month鈥檚 Current Conditions Index was 21 points below last year鈥檚 December index, reaching its lowest level since December 2024.

In May, the survey also asked farmers to identify the main factor limiting improvement in their farm鈥檚 financial situation. High input costs were by far the most frequently cited constraint, selected by 46% of respondents. Weather risk ranked second at 19%, followed by low output prices at 14%, labor and equipment concerns at 9%, and debt or financial pressure at 5%.

Questions related to the impact of the Iran conflict on net farm income and corn breakeven prices in 2026 were included again this month. Similar to the results from April, approximately two-thirds of the respondents expected their net farm income to decline in 2026 due to the Iran conflict, which began in late February. Among respondents who planted corn in 2025, approximately one-half expected corn breakeven prices to increase by up to 6%, 17% expected breakeven prices to increase by 6% to 9%, and 30% expected them to increase by 10% or more.

Periodically, the monthly survey includes questions about farm labor. Approximately 39% of respondents hire non-family members to work on their farm operations. Of those who hire labor, approximately 44% have had at least some or a lot of difficulty hiring this year. Respondents were also asked whether artificial intelligence (AI) tools would improve their current labor and equipment situation. Approximately 59% indicated that it would not improve their situation, while 37% indicated that it would help some, and 4% indicated that it would help a lot.

Source: | Read the complete report .

Farmer sentiment fell in April as concerns about rising input costs, tighter availability and global instability continued to weigh on the agricultural outlook. The April聽聽dropped to 121, down from 127 in March. The percentage of respondents who listed high input costs as their biggest concern remained at 46% this month, while the percentage who listed input availability as their biggest concern increased from 11% to 14%. The percentage of respondents who think the U.S. is headed in the 鈥渞ight direction鈥� and who expect land prices to be higher five years from now also decreased. The April barometer survey was conducted among 400 farmers across the nation from April 13鈥�17, 2026. 聽

This month鈥檚 survey included questions related to the impact of the Iran conflict on net farm income and corn breakeven prices in 2026. Approximately two-thirds of the respondents expected their net farm income to decline in 2026 due to the Iran conflict, which began in late February and affected fertilizer and natural gas prices worldwide.

As in the last few months, producers were asked whether the U.S. is headed in the 鈥渞ight direction鈥� or on the 鈥渨rong track.鈥� The percentage of producers who reported that the U.S. is headed in the 鈥渞ight direction鈥� fell from 65% in March to 57% in April.

Source: | Read the complete report

The Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer Index climbed to 139 in November, 10 points higher than in October and the highest barometer reading since June of this year. The improvement in farmer sentiment was attributable to producers鈥� more optimistic outlook for the future, as the November Future Expectations Index reading of 144 was 15 points higher than in October, whereas the Current Conditions Index fell 2 points to a reading of 128.

This month鈥檚 survey was the first survey conducted since the late October announcement of a trade pact between the U.S. and China that included provisions for increasing U.S. exports of agricultural products to China, and survey respondents were notably more optimistic about future prospects for U.S. agricultural exports. Sentiment was also buoyed by a sharp rise in crop prices from mid-October to mid-November.

Recent barometer surveys have included two questions that focus on farmers鈥� attitudes regarding 2025鈥檚 policy shifts. A majority of respondents, 59% in November and 58% in October, said they expect that use of tariffs by the U.S. will ultimately strengthen the agricultural economy. However, that is lower than last spring, when 70% of respondents said they expected tariffs to strengthen the agricultural economy in the long run. More producers in recent months reported being uncertain regarding the long-run impact of the U.S. tariff policy. In October and November, 16% and 17% of survey respondents, respectively, said they were uncertain about the impact that tariff policy will have, roughly double the 8% of respondents who felt that way in April and May. Meanwhile, two-thirds (67%) of farmers in the November survey said the U.S. is headed in the 鈥渞ight direction鈥�, down from the 72% who felt that way in October.

Summary

Farmer sentiment improved in November, with the rise attributable to an improvement in the Index of Future Expectations. Strengthening crop prices contributed to the improved outlook for the future, as did a more optimistic outlook for agricultural exports. Producers were more optimistic about farmland values in both the short and long run this month. Most farmers continue to think it is likely that they will receive supplemental income support from the USDA in the form of an MFP payment if prices are negatively impacted by U.S. tariff policies. A majority of producers expect U.S. tariff policies to prove beneficial to the agricultural economy in the long run, but the percentage of respondents who said they are uncertain about the impact was roughly double the percentage who said they were uncertain last spring. Finally, two-thirds of producers said that 鈥渢hings in the U.S. today are headed in the right direction鈥�, but that was lower than a month earlier, while the percentage who chose 鈥渨rong track鈥� rose from 28% to 33%.

Read the full report here:

While optimism grew in the Index of Current Conditions, crop producers remain cautious, citing tighter margins and weaker profit expectations. The Index of Future Expectations held steady, suggesting farmers remain uncertain about what lies ahead. This month鈥檚 Ag Economy Barometer report highlights how diverging trends between livestock and crop sectors are shaping overall sentiment聽across U.S. agriculture.

For October, politics emerged as a frequent topic of discussion, likely influenced by the elections. Many producers expressed worries about potential policy changes impacting their farms and the agricultural economy, with regulation, environment and taxes featured prominently alongside price concerns.

When specifically asked about their worries for the upcoming year, respondents continued to point to higher input costs and lower output prices as their primary concerns. The trend of producers鈥� decreasing concern over interest rates continued this month, with only 15% citing it as a top worry in October, down from 26% in late 2023.

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Michael Langemeier, director of Purdue鈥檚 Center for Commercial Agriculture, says the survey was taken when the September supply and demand report was released, and it contributed to the weaker outlook.

鈥淎bout 70 percent of those we survey are crop producers,鈥� he says. 鈥淲hen you look at the net returns in the crop sector, they鈥檙e not very good right now. We expected that group to be relatively pessimistic, drawing down that index of current conditions.鈥�

One factor that appears to be influencing farmer sentiment is farmers鈥� perspectives on the multitude of policy changes implemented in the U.S. in 2025. For example, a substantial majority (71%) of U.S. farmers in this month鈥檚 survey reported that things in the U.S. today are 鈥渉eaded in the right direction.鈥� However, when asked specifically about whether they expect the increased use of tariffs to strengthen or weaken the U.S. agricultural economy, just over half (51%) said they expected tariffs to strengthen the agricultural economy in the long run.

Over 80% of producers think it鈥檚 likely or very likely that, in the event that a trade war negatively impacts commodity prices, a program similar to 2019鈥檚 MFP will help compensate for agricultural product price weakness.

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鈥淲hen we asked producers about what their expectations are going forward over a longer time period, 45% of them indicated that they expect to see bad times in the next 5 years,鈥� said Professor emeritus Jim Mintert with Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture. 鈥淧roducers still think things are better than a year ago, at least in terms of their overall sentiment.鈥�

He says producers remain optimistic President Trump鈥檚 tariff policy will benefit U.S. agriculture.

鈥淎lthough in the short run, what鈥檚 taking place with respect to tariff policy could be disruptive, in fact has been somewhat disruptive in respect to ag trade,鈥� Mintert says. 鈥淭he folks that we鈥檝e interviewed here have pretty much decided that they鈥檙e willing to give it a chance and see how it plays out.鈥�

Mintert says he continues to monitor how recent trade frameworks could impact farmer sentiment. He says the latest survey was conducted the first week of July.

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The sentiment聽boost was driven by a more optimistic outlook on U.S. agricultural exports and a less negative view of how tariffs will impact farm income in 2025. The May barometer survey took place May 12-16.

A key factor contributing to this month鈥檚 climb in farmer聽sentiment聽could be linked to a more positive view of the U.S.鈥檚 long-run agricultural trade prospects. In May, 52% of producers said they expect agricultural exports to increase over the next five years, surging from 33% in April and the highest percentage of positive responses to this question since November 2020. Meanwhile, 12% said they believe exports will decline, down from 24% the previous month.

To better understand U.S. producer views on trade, the May survey revisited a barometer question first asked in the fall of 2020. Producers were asked to rate their agreement with the statement, 鈥淔ree trade benefits agriculture and most other American industries.鈥� On average, 49% of respondents 鈥渟trongly agreed鈥� with the statement during the fall 2020 surveys.

In contrast, only 28% of respondents chose 鈥渟trongly agreed鈥� in May 2025. Additional evidence of changing views comes from responses to questions about the impact of U.S. tariff policies on their farms鈥� income.

While the uptick in sentiment聽is certainly notable, it鈥檚 important to recognize that producers are navigating a complex mix of optimism and caution. Producers鈥� expectations for exports and farm income have improved, but concerns remain about capital investment and, for some operations, the potential for labor shortages due to immigration policy changes.

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The Farm Capital Investment Index at 61 was 7 points higher in April than in March, reaching the highest investment index reading since May 2021. There was a marked shift in the investment index following the November 2024 election. From May through October 2024, the investment index averaged a reading of 36, while from November 2024 through April 2025, the average index value was 54 鈥� 50% higher than during the preceding six months. This month, one out of four respondents said it was a good time to make large investments, nearly double the percentage of respondents who said it was a good time to invest when surveyed from May through October of last year.

Although 25% of respondents this month reported that it鈥檚 a good time to invest, nearly two-thirds of producers in this month鈥檚 survey still said it was a bad time to invest, and that group鈥檚 view appears to be the driver behind weak new farm equipment sales so far in 2025. For example, the Association of 婷婷激情五月天 Manufacturers reported that first-quarter 2025 sales of tractors over 100 horsepower declined 19% compared to 2024鈥檚 first quarter, while new combine sales fell 38% below a year earlier.  

The Farm Financial Performance Index changed little in April. At a reading of 101, the index was just 1 point below a month earlier. April marked the fourth month in a row that the index was above 100, indicating that producers expect financial performance this year to equal or slightly exceed the year-ago level.

The Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index weakened in April to a reading of 110, which was 8 points below a month earlier. The decline in the index was primarily attributable to fewer producers reporting that they expect farmland values to increase in the year ahead, with a comparable increase in the percentage of producers saying they expect values to remain about the same.

The April survey included several questions focused on the impact of the U.S.鈥檚 tariff policy on U.S. agriculture. Although sentiment improved in April, farmers are still concerned that the U.S. government鈥檚 tariff policy will have a negative impact on farm incomes. Fifty-six percent of respondents to the April survey said they think the U.S. tariff policy will have either a negative or very negative impact on their farm鈥檚 income in 2025. In a related question, just over half (53%) of producers expect the increase in tariffs on imports to make it more difficult to obtain inputs from their suppliers this year. Producers who expect some difficulty in obtaining inputs pointed to three main areas of concern: fertilizer, parts for farm machinery and electronics and crop chemicals. Despite the concerns farmers expressed in the April survey about the impact of tariffs on farm incomes and availability of inputs for their farm operations, 70% of respondents said they expect the increased use of tariffs will, in the long run, strengthen the U.S. agricultural economy. 

Wrapping Up

Farmer sentiment improved in April as farmers鈥� appraisal of both current conditions and their expectations for the future improved compared to March. Agricultural producers are concerned that the U.S. tariff policy will reduce farm incomes in 2025. However, in the long run, there is an expectation among a majority of producers that the U.S. tariff policy will actually benefit U.S. agriculture. Finally, just over half of producers in the April survey expressed concern about the imposition of tariffs making it more difficult to obtain inputs from their suppliers later this year. Concerns were focused on the availability of fertilizer, parts for farm machinery and electronics and crop chemicals.

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