Readings range between 0 and 100 with 50.0 representing growth neutral.

Overall: The region鈥檚 overall reading for September fell to 44.7 from 50.3 in August.

Farm equipment sales: The September farm equipment sales index increased to a very weak 25.0 from August鈥檚 22.2.

Farming and ranchland prices: For the fourth time in the past five months, the farm and ranchland price index climbed above growth neutral, increasing to 50.1 from 47.2 in August. 鈥淔arm and ranchland values have been holding up much better than farm and ranching income,鈥� said Goss.

Hiring: The new hiring index for September sank to 49.5 from August鈥檚 50.1. The rural job market for farms, ranches and non-farm rural employers has remained weak for the last several months.

鈥淚n September, 5.3% of bankers reported an upturn in hiring by Rural Mainstreet businesses. This was unchanged from the August report,鈥� said Goss.

Confidence: Rural bankers remain pessimistic about economic growth for their area over the next six months. The September economic confidence index tumbled to a weak 26.3 from 31.6 in August. 

鈥淒espite improving grain prices, rising trade tensions and higher input costs continued to weigh on banker confidence,鈥� said Goss.

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Overall: The region鈥檚 overall reading for August rose to 50.3 from 42.1 in July.

Approximately, 47.5% of bankers expect farm income to decline in the next 12 months. Roughly 36.8% anticipate little or no change in farm income, while the remaining 15.7% expect a slight increase in farm income over the 12-month period.

Farm equipment sales: The August farm equipment sales index sank to a very weak 22.2 from July鈥檚 27.8. This is the 36th straight month that the index has fallen below growth neutral.

鈥淭ariffs on imported steel/aluminum and the conflict in Iran continue to create volatility in the agricultural sector. Producers are not as willing to purchase new farm equipment due to volatility, along with low and negative cash flows,鈥� said Goss.

As a result of weak farm equipment sales, bankers reported that borrowing to support farm equipment purchases accounted for only 5.3% of agriculture lending, while real estate loans represented 52.6% of ag lending. Operating loans accounted for 31.4%, livestock loans represented 5.6% and 5.1% accounted for other remaining loans as reported by bank CEOs in August.

Farming and ranchland prices: For the first time since April of this year, the farm and ranchland price index fell below growth neutral. The farm and ranchland index dropped to 47.2 from 52.8 in July.

Confidence: Rural bankers remain pessimistic about economic growth for their area over the next six months. The August economic confidence index slumped to 31.6 from July鈥檚 34.2.

鈥淲eak grain prices, higher input costs and volatility stemming from the Iran war and tariff uncertainty continue to weigh on banker confidence,鈥� said Goss.

The table below summarizes the survey’s findings.

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Overall: The region鈥檚 overall reading for February fell to 47.9 from 52.0 in January. This marks the12th time since January 2025 that the index has moved below the growth neutral threshold. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.

鈥淒ue to weakness in the farm economy, especially for grain, approximately 75% of bankers support additional Congressional financial support for the agriculture sector. Pullbacks in farm exports for 2025 continue to undermine the regional farm economy,鈥� said Ernie Goss, PhD, Jack A. MacAllister Chair at Creighton University鈥檚 Heider College of Business.

The Federal Reserve鈥檚 interest rate setting committee, the FOMC, met January 27-28 to consider changing rates. Almost one in four bankers, or 23.1%, recommend reducing short-term interest rates by 25%.  Approximately 73.1% advocate no change, while the remaining 3.8% support a rate increase.

Farm equipment sales: The farm equipment sales index sank to a very weak 16.7 from 18.8 in January. 鈥淭his is the 30th straight month that the index has fallen below growth neutral. Lower interest rates and the $12 billion of federal farm support have yet to stimulate farm equipment sales,鈥� said Goss.

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Farm equipment sales: The farm equipment sales index rose to a very weak 18.2 from January鈥檚 17.4. 鈥淭his is the 19th straight month that the index has fallen below growth neutral. High input prices, tighter credit conditions and weak farm grain prices are having a negative impact on the purchases of farm equipment,鈥�  Ernie Goss, PhD, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University鈥檚 Heider College of Business.

Farming and ranch land prices: For the 8th time in the past nine months, farmland prices sank below growth neutral. The region鈥檚 farmland price index fell to 40.0, its lowest level since October 2024, and down from 42.0 in January.

Confidence: Rural bankers remain pessimistic about economic growth for their area over the next six months. The February confidence index sank to 40.0 from January鈥檚 42.3. 鈥淲eak grain prices and negative farm cash flows, combined with downturns in farm equipment sales over the past several months, continued to push banker confidence below growth neutral,鈥� said Goss. 

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Overall: The region鈥檚 overall reading for November climbed to a soft 50.2 from October鈥檚 very weak 35.2. It was the highest reading since July of last year. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.

鈥淵ields have been healthy across the region and have offset some of the weakness in farm commodity prices. Likewise, lower fuel costs and lower short-term interest boosted the modest improvement in farm conditions for the month. Even so, more than eight of 10 bankers see lower ag commodity prices as the greatest threat to the farmer,鈥� said Ernie Goss, PhD, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University鈥檚 Heider College of Business.

Farm 婷婷激情五月天 Sales: The farm equipment sales index slumped to 14.6, its lowest level since October 2016, and was down from 18.8 last month. 鈥淭his is the 16th straight month that the index has fallen below growth neutral. High borrowing costs, tighter credit conditions and weak farm commodity prices are having a negative impact on the purchases of farm equipment,鈥� said Goss.

Farming and Ranching Land Prices: For the sixth time in the past seven months, farmland prices sank. However, the region鈥檚 farmland index improved to a weak 44.4 from October鈥檚 six-year low of 38.5. 鈥淓levated interest rates and higher input costs, along with below break-even grain prices, have significantly reduced farmer demand for ag land,鈥� said Goss.

Interest Rates: Approximately 64.3% of bankers recommended that the Federal Reserve make no change to short-term interest rates at its December meeting. The remaining 35.7% advocated a 0.25% reduction.

Banking: The November loan volume index declined to a solid 58.9 from a strong 73.1. The checking deposit index fell to 59.3 from 63.7 in October. The index for certificates of deposits (CDs) and other savings instruments sank to 53.7 from 63.5 in October. The Federal Reserve鈥檚 higher interest rate policies have boosted CD purchases above growth neutral for 24 straight months.

Hiring: The new hiring index for November was unchanged from October鈥檚 50.0.

Confidence: Rural bankers remain pessimistic about economic growth for their area over the next six months. The November confidence index increased to a weak 46.4, its highest level since March 2022, and up from October鈥檚 29.6. 鈥淲eak agriculture commodity prices and negative farm cash flow, combined with downturns in farm equipment sales over the past several months, continued to place banker confidence below growth neutral,鈥� said Goss.

Home and retail sales: Home sales sank to 42.6 from October鈥檚 weak 46.3. Likewise, retail sales in the region were very weak with a November reading of 42.0, up from October鈥檚 even weaker 36.0.

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• The Rural Mainstreet Index plummeted to its lowest level since the beginning of the pandemic and fell below growth neutral for the 13^th straight month.
• For the fourth time in the past five months, farmland prices sank. 
• On average, bank CEOs expect farmland prices to fall by 5.2% in the next year with almost one-fourth anticipating price declines between 10% and 20%.
• Farm equipment sales sank for the 14^th straight month.
• On average, bankers expect almost 40% of farmers in the region to experience negative 2024 farm income.
• According to trade data from the International Trade Association, regional exports of agriculture goods and livestock for 2024 year-to-date were up by $57.0 million (0.8%) from the same period in 2023.

For a 13^th straight month, the overall Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) sank below growth neutral, according to the September survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy.

Overall: The region鈥檚 overall reading for September sank to 37.5 from 40.9 in August. It was the lowest reading since the beginning of the pandemic in spring 2020. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 that represents growth neutral.

Farm equipment sales: The farm equipment sales index for September increased to 19.0 from 16.7. 鈥淭his is the 14^th straight month that the index has fallen below growth neutral. Higher borrowing costs, tighter credit conditions and negative farm income are having a negative impact on the purchases of farm equipment,鈥� said Goss.

Farming and ranching land prices: For the fourth time in the past five months, farmland prices sank. The region鈥檚 farmland index fell to 43.8 from August鈥檚 45.5. 鈥淥nly 4.2% of bank CEOs reported that farmland prices expanded from August levels,鈥� said Goss.

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Overall: The region鈥檚 overall reading for July sank to 41.3, its lowest reading since November 2023, and down from 41.7 in June.  The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.

鈥淲eak agriculture commodity prices, sinking agriculture equipment sales and declining farm exports pushed the overall reading below growth neutral for the 11th straight month,鈥� said Ernie Goss, PhD, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University鈥檚 Heider College of Business.

Farm equipment sales: The farm equipment sales index for July plummeted to 19.0, its lowest level in more than seven years, and down from June鈥檚 31.8. 鈥淭his is the 12^th straight month that the index has fallen below growth neutral. Higher borrowing costs, tighter credit conditions and weak grain prices are having a negative impact on the purchases of farm equipment,鈥� said Goss.

Farming and ranching land prices: After falling below growth neutral for two straight months, farmland prices rose above the growth neutral threshold for July. The region鈥檚 farmland increased to 52.2 from June鈥檚 49.9. 鈥淥nly 8.7% of bank CEOs reported that farmland prices expanded from June levels,鈥� said Goss.

According to trade data from the International Trade Association, regional exports of agriculture goods and livestock for 2024 year-to-date were down $198 million, or 3.6%, from the same period in 2023.

Banking: The July loan volume index stood at a very strong 67.4, but down from June鈥檚 79.2. The checking deposit index increased to a weak 45.5 from June鈥檚 34.8. The index for certificates of deposits and other savings instruments rose to 65.9 from 63.0 in June.

Interest Rates: Bankers were asked their recommendations for Federal Reserve interest rate actions for the rest of 2024. Almost half, or 47.8%, advocate for two rate cuts of one-quarter of one percentage point, or one-half of one percentage point.

Hiring: The new hiring index for July improved to 50.0 from June鈥檚 47.7. In terms of economic risks for the region for the next 12 months, over half, or 52.2%, indicated a recession as the greatest risk, 26.0% named an upturn in inflation, 17.4% identified a debt crisis and 4.4% specified little or no economic risks for the next 12 months.

Home and retail sales: After expanding to a strong 62.5 in June, the home sales index tumbled to July鈥檚 33.3. Likewise, retail sales in the region, much like that for the nation, were very weak with a July retail index of 39.1, down from 41.3 in June. 鈥淗igh consumer debt, elevated interest rates and weaker farm income are cutting into retail sales for the Rural Mainstreet Economy,鈥� said Goss.

The survey represents an early snapshot of the economy of rural agriculturally- and energy-dependent portions of the nation. The Rural Mainstreet Index is a unique index covering 10 regional states, focusing on approximately 200 rural communities with an average population of 1,300.

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鈥淗igher interest rates, weak agriculture commodity prices and sinking agriculture equipment sales pushed the overall reading below growth neutral for the 10th straight month,鈥� said Ernie Goss, PhD, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University鈥檚 .

According to James Brown, president of Hardin County Savings Bank in Eldora, Iowa, 鈥淔arm operating loans are up 20% in total volume compared to last year, a sign that cash flow and cash (balances) are down from last year.鈥�

Farm equipment sales: The farm equipment sales index for June dropped to 31.8 from 34.0 in May. 鈥淭his is the 12^th time in the past 13 months that the index has fallen below growth neutral. Higher borrowing costs, tighter credit conditions and weak grain prices are having a negative impact on the purchases of farm equipment,鈥� said Goss.

Farming and ranching land prices: After rising above the growth neutral threshold for 53 straight months, the region鈥檚 farmland slumped below growth neutral for a second consecutive month to 49.9, but it was up from May鈥檚 47.9. 鈥淥nly 4.3% of bank CEOs reported that farmland prices expanded from May levels,鈥� said Goss.

Confidence: Rural bankers remain very pessimistic about economic growth for their area over the next six months. The June confidence index increased to a very weak 29.2 from May鈥檚 28.8. 鈥淲eak agriculture commodity prices and farm exports, combined with downturns in farm equipment sales over the past several months, continued to constrain banker confidence,鈥� said Goss.

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According to the report, John Deere plans to move production of mid-frame skid steer loaders and compact track loaders from the current plant in Dubuque to Mexico.

鈥淭hose are very attractive jobs,鈥� Creighton University economist Ernie Goss said. 鈥淭hose are jobs you don鈥檛 like to lose.鈥�

Those jobs likely won鈥檛 come back with new land being purchased and a facility being built to produce the line of equipment, Goss continued.

The sentiment was echoed Monday in the Mid-America Business Conditions report for the month of May showing manufacturing companies below growth-neutral for the past three out of four months.

鈥淢anufacturing is weak and getting a bit weaker, not a recession yet, but it鈥檚 certainly moving in that direction. Farmers have cut back significantly on their purchases of agricultural equipment (thanks to) obviously lower commodity prices and higher interest rates,鈥� said Godd.

Higher interest rates are increasing the value of the dollar and creating a very difficult environment for companies to price products competitively, Goss said.

鈥淟ong term I think we鈥檒l be okay, but short term is a real struggle,鈥� added Goss.

Goss remains optimistic about the strength of the Midwest economy, saying places like Iowa are able to weather economic downturns better than our neighbors to the east and west thanks to our ability to produce products more efficiently and land values that continue to rise.

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April 2024 Survey Results at a Glance:

For an eighth straight month, the overall Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) sank below growth neutral, according to the April survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy.

Overall: The region鈥檚 overall reading for April increased to 45.8 from 38.0 in March, or its lowest level since June 2020. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.

鈥淗igher interest rates, weaker agriculture commodity prices and higher grain storage costs pushed the overall reading below growth neutral for the eighth straight month,鈥� said Ernie Goss, PhD, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University鈥檚 Heider College of Business.

Farm equipment sales: The farm equipment sales index for April improved to a weak 47.7 from March鈥檚 30.4, which was the lowest reading since May 2020. 鈥�This is the 10^th time in the past 11 months that the index has fallen below growth neutral. Higher borrowing costs, tighter credit conditions and weaker grain prices are having a negative impact on the purchases of farm equipment,鈥� said Goss.

Farming and ranching land prices: The region鈥檚 farmland price index rose to a solid 56.5 from March鈥檚 56.0. The farmland price index has remained above growth neutral for 53 consecutive months. 鈥淐reighton鈥檚 survey continues to point to solid, but slowing, growth in farmland prices for 2024. Approximately 17.4% of bankers reported that farmland prices expanded from March levels,鈥� said Goss.

鈥淓ven with weaker farm conditions, only approximately 0.9% of bankers reported an upturn in farm loan delinquencies over the past six months. This is slightly below last month鈥檚 1.0% when the same question was asked,鈥� said Goss.

Approximately half of bank CEOs reported that ethanol production was very important to their local economy.

Terry Engelken, past president of Washington State Bank in Washington, Iowa, reported that, 鈥淲e have a biodiesel plant and that does not need a pipeline (to transport CO2). There is a new technology that converts the CO2 to methanol and thus would end the need for the pipelines.鈥�

Banking: The April loan volume index soared to a strong and record high 85.4 from 79.2 in March. The checking deposit index sank to 52.2 from March鈥檚 62.5. The index for certificates of deposits and other savings instruments slipped to a still strong 71.7 from 72.9 in March.

James Brown, CEO of Hardin County State Bank in Eldora, Iowa, said, 鈥淔arm operating lines of credit will increase this year due to the loss of working capital on most financial statements for 2023. There is still a reasonable amount of working capital on most balance sheets, but cash flows show breakeven levels at current prices with a normal crop year.鈥�

Hiring: The new hiring index for April climbed to 56.8 from March鈥檚 52.2. 鈥淎pproximately 13.6% of bankers reported an increase in hiring over March levels,鈥� said Goss. Over the past 12 months, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data indicate that the regional Rural Mainstreet Economy boosted jobs by 2.6%, compared to 0.9% for urban areas of the same states. 

Confidence: Rural bankers remain very pessimistic about economic growth for their area over the next six months. The April confidence index increased to 37.5 from March鈥檚 36.0. 鈥淲eak and falling agriculture commodity prices, farm exports and higher interest rates over the past several months continued to constrain banker confidence,鈥� said Goss.

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