But it seems to have hardly touched people. That’s “a little bit of a head scratcher,” although there are some likely explanations, said Richard Webby, a flu researcher at St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital in Memphis, TN. It could have to do with how infection occurs or because species have differences in the microscopic docking points that flu viruses need to take root and multiply.

But what keeps scientists awake at night is whether that situation will change.

“There’s a lot we don’t understand,” said Dr. Tom Frieden, a former CDC director. “I think we have to get over the ‘hope for the best and bury our head in the sand’ approach. Because it could be really bad.”

Some researchers theorize that flu viruses that originated in birds were the precursors to terrible scourges in humans, including pandemics in 1918 and 1957. Those viruses became deadly human contagions and spread in animals and people.

A number of experts think it’s unlikely this virus will become a deadly global contagion, based on current evidence. But that’s not a sure bet. Just in case, U.S. health officials are readying vaccines and making other preparations.

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The gains came after Chinese officials and U.S. counterparts reached a deal in which the U.S. would allow imports of Chinese cooked chicken and seafood products in exchange for China scrapping the ban on U.S. poultry shipments. The pact, reached amid the broader trade dispute between the countries, caused poultry stocks to pop.

The ban was instituted in 2015 in response to outbreaks of avian influenza in the U.S. Lately, however, China has struggled with an outbreak of African swine fever that has cost the country roughly 40 percent of its hog herd and initiated a scramble for alternative proteins.

Prices for chicken in the U.S. have yet to jump like the shares of producers have, but they are expected to rise alongside shipments to China.

鈥淚t can and likely will move U.S. poultry prices higher,鈥� said Dennis Smith, a commodities broker with Archer Financial Services Inc. 鈥淪eeing China drop this ban鈥imply confirms that they need protein.鈥�

The Chinese National Bureau of Statistics said recently that prices for Chinese pork had risen 69 percent from a year earlier due to the African swine fever epidemic. The USDA projects that China鈥檚 swine herd will fall to 275 million pigs, from 428 million pigs in 2018.

Source: Wall Street Journal