Optimism about export prospects over the next five years also improved this month, reaching 140 鈥� the highest since December 2025. Higher input costs remained the biggest concern this month.

This month鈥檚 survey included three questions about operator skills. The first question had respondents indicate the skill that generated the most return on investment on their farm. Production skills were selected by 29%, followed by financial management and analysis at 23%, strategic planning at 22%, selling products at 14%, and buying inputs at 11%.

The second question asked respondents which skill their farm needed the most improvement in. Strategic planning was selected by 28% of respondents, followed by selling products at 20%, buying inputs at 19%, financial management and analysis at 17%, and production at 16%.

The third question asked respondents to indicate which skills they believed had the most potential for improvement using artificial intelligence. The top three choices, in order, were strategic planning (32%), financial management and analysis (28%), and production (18%) (see Figure 6).

Summary: Farmer sentiment increased again in August, with the largest improvement coming from the future expectations. The Index of Current Conditions increased by 1 point, while the Index of Future Expectations increased by 11 points. Respondents were more optimistic about their financial prospects and land values in the upcoming year and exports in the next five years, but were less confident about making new investments in machinery and buildings.

Source: | Read the complete August report 

Only 12% of respondents indicated that their farm operations were better off in June than they had been a year ago. Looking ahead to the next 12 months, 22% of respondents expect their farms to be better off financially a year from now. The Farm Capital Investment Index fell 1 point to 40, its lowest level since September 2024.

This month鈥檚 survey included two questions related to the use of artificial intelligence (AI) or data-driven tools in agriculture. The first question asked survey respondents what they viewed as the main benefit of using these tools. Approximately 23% of respondents indicated that an increase in production would be the main benefit (see Figure 5). Reducing labor and reducing risk or uncertainty were chosen by 14% and 11% of respondents, respectively. Meanwhile, 52% of respondents said they did not see a meaningful benefit. A second question asked whether recommendations arising from data-driven tools would be difficult to follow. Approximately 63% of respondents indicated that recommendations would be sometimes difficult to follow, while 22% indicated that recommendations would often be difficult to follow.

Since July 2025, producers have been asked whether they think the U.S. is headed in the 鈥渞ight direction鈥� or on the 鈥渨rong track.鈥� After averaging 71% over the last six months of 2025, the percentage of producers who reported that the U.S. was headed in the 鈥渞ight direction鈥� was 52% in May and 53% in June (see Figure 8).

Wrapping Up

Farmer sentiment decreased from 119 in May to 113 in June, with declines in sentiment regarding both current conditions and future expectations. The percentage of producers who expected good times over the next five years was 32% in June, which is 17 percentage points lower than in the June 2025 survey results. There continued to be a large disparity in expectations between crop and livestock producers. Approximately 25% of respondents expected good times for crop producers, while 68% expected good times for livestock producers.

Input costs remained a top concern, with high input costs identified as the most important factor limiting improvements in financial performance. Despite concerns about the future, respondents remained optimistic regarding both short-term and long-term land values.

Source: | Read the complete report .

鈥淲hen we asked producers about what their expectations are going forward over a longer time period, 45% of them indicated that they expect to see bad times in the next 5 years,鈥� said Professor emeritus Jim Mintert with Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture. 鈥淧roducers still think things are better than a year ago, at least in terms of their overall sentiment.鈥�

He says producers remain optimistic President Trump鈥檚 tariff policy will benefit U.S. agriculture.

鈥淎lthough in the short run, what鈥檚 taking place with respect to tariff policy could be disruptive, in fact has been somewhat disruptive in respect to ag trade,鈥� Mintert says. 鈥淭he folks that we鈥檝e interviewed here have pretty much decided that they鈥檙e willing to give it a chance and see how it plays out.鈥�

Mintert says he continues to monitor how recent trade frameworks could impact farmer sentiment. He says the latest survey was conducted the first week of July.

Sources:

An ag economist says ongoing trade uncertainty led to a decline in the latest Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer.

Professor emeritus Jim Mintert with Purdue鈥檚 Center for Commercial Agriculture says farmers are less optimistic about the future.

鈥淚 think that decline, that loss of optimism about future ag export prospects really explains the change that we saw in that index of future expectations, and in turn was the driving factor behind the change in the barometer itself,鈥� he says.

Mintert said that producers remain concerned trade tensions could impact their bottom line.

鈥淧eople are still concerned about the possibility of a negative impact on farm income because of tariffs, but a little less so in both May and June than what we saw in March and April,鈥� he says. 鈥淟onger term growth in the ag sector in the US historically has been strongly correlated with growth in exports.鈥�

Mintert noted that the center will continue to monitor how new trade developments in the coming months could further impact farmer sentiment.

Sources: Read full report here:

This month鈥檚 decline in the barometer takes farmer sentiment back to the average level observed from fall 2015 to winter 2016, a period when farm incomes were declining sharply. The weakness in farmer sentiment could indicate that farmers expect this year鈥檚 farm income downturn to last for an extended period. Data collection for the August survey took place from August 12-16, 2024.

Over the last several months, farmers鈥� concerns about weakening commodity prices have become more evident in barometer surveys. In the August survey, producers鈥� concerns about commodity prices nearly eclipsed what has consistently been their top concern: high input prices. This month, 30% of respondents picked lower commodity prices as a top concern compared to 33% who chose high input costs. This was a marked departure from a year earlier when just 20% of survey respondents pointed to weak commodity prices as a top concern for their farm operation. At the same time, fewer respondents chose rising interest rates as a top concern.

The August Farm Financial Performance Index fell 9 points below a month earlier and was 14 points lower than a year ago. This month鈥檚 reading was the weakest response to the financial performance question since July 2020, when COVID-related lockdowns still dominated the headlines. Consistent with expectations for weak financial conditions, producers again signaled that the investment climate in production agriculture is also poor as the Farm Capital Investment Index fell 7 points to 31. This month鈥檚 investment index was also 6 points lower than a year earlier and matched the index鈥檚 all-time lowest reading.

Despite concerns about the farm income outlook, most farmers in our survey still say they expect farmland cash rental rates for the 2025 crop year to remain unchanged. This month, 70% of U.S. crop farmers in our survey said they expect farmland cash rental rates to stay about the same, with just 16% of respondents reporting that they anticipate declining lease rates.

Wrapping Up

Farmer sentiment weakened sharply in August as the Ag Economy Barometer index fell 13 points compared to July. The August reading of 100 places farmer sentiment on par with sentiment in late 2015 and early 2016 when the U.S. ag economy was in the early stages of a downturn.

Farmers were most pessimistic about near-term conditions, as the current index fell 17 points below a month earlier. Sentiment weakness was driven by expectations for weak farm financial performance and extended to a weak outlook for capital expenditures by farm operations. Although the short-term farmland index remained above 100, signaling that more survey respondents still expect values to rise over the next year than look for values to decline, it鈥檚 clear that farmers are less optimistic about farmland values this summer than in recent years. Notably, the short-term farmland index posted its lowest reading since spring 2020.

Despite the weakness in farmer sentiment and expectations for weak farm financial performance, 70% of crop farmers in this month鈥檚 survey said they expect farmland cash rental rates to remain about the same in 2025 as in 2024.

Source:

The Farm Financial Performance Index rose three points in June to a reading of 85. There鈥檚 been a tendency in recent years for producers鈥� financial performance expectations to bottom out in spring and improve as the spring crop growing season progresses. This year seems to be following that pattern as the index has risen nine points over the last two months.

The capital investment outlook weakened slightly in June as the Farm Capital Investment Index fell three points to a reading of 32, which leaves the index just one point higher than its all-time low. More producers this month said now is a bad time to make large investments than in May, with no change in the percentage of producers who said it鈥檚 a good time to invest. Interest rate concerns appear to be affecting farmers鈥� investment outlook. Over the last several months, the percentage of producers citing rising interest rates as a top concern for their farm operation has been rising. In February, 18% of survey respondents chose rising interest rates as a top concern.

Once again, this month鈥檚 survey asked respondents if they or one of their landowners had been approached about a possible Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) project from an ethanol plant. This month, 8% of respondents said they had been in contact about a CCS project. The vast majority (93%) of respondents who had contact with a company about a CCS project reported that payment rates offered were less than $25 per acre, with just 8% of producers reporting payment rate offers of $50 or more per acre. 

Sixteen percent of respondents this month said that, within the last six months, they had discussed with a company a farmland lease for solar energy production. That鈥檚 down slightly compared to April and May, when 19 and 20 percent of respondents, respectively, reported solar leasing discussions taking place. Lease rates have been rising since we first collected data on solar leasing in 2021. This month, 69% of respondents said they were offered a long-term lease rate of $1,000 per acre or more, up from just 27% in June 2021. This month鈥檚 survey included a more detailed list of lease rate options for respondents to choose from, and 27% of respondents said they were offered a lease rate of $1,500 per acre or more. Fifty-eight percent of respondents said the lease contract they discussed included an annual escalator clause. Among those respondents who reported discussing an escalator clause, the most common escalator range was from 2 to 3 percent per year.

Wrapping Up

Weaker expectations for the future were responsible for a modest decline in this month鈥檚 Ag Economy Barometersentiment index. Farmers long-term farmland value outlook weakened slightly in June after approaching an all-time high last month. The percentage of farmers reporting that they are concerned about rising interest rates has been increasing, which could be one reason why farmers鈥� future expectations, along with their outlook on capital investments and long-term farmland values, all dipped compared to a month earlier. In areas of the country where leasing of farmland for solar energy production is taking place, lease rates being offered continue to rise. This month, 69% of respondents who reported a solar leasing discussion said they were offered a long-term solar lease rate of $1,000 per acre or more.

Source:

This month鈥檚 survey again included questions about leasing farmland for solar energy production. There was a noticeable uptick in the percentage of respondents who reported a discussion with a company in the last 6 months about leasing farmland for solar energy production. In April, that percentage rose 7 points to 19% of respondents, up from 12% in March.

Farmers who reported discussing solar leasing with a company were also asked about the annual lease rates they were offered. Fifty-eight percent of them reported a lease rate offer of over $1,000 per acre, up from 54% in the March survey. For the last two months, the solar lease rate question provided an additional breakout of the over $1,000 per acre category. Thirty percent of respondents in April said the lease rate they were offered ranged between $1,000 and $1,250 per acre, while 28% of farmers said they were offered $1,250 or more per acre.

Summary: Farmer sentiment weakened sharply in April as the Ag Economy Barometer fell 15 points to its lowest reading since June 2022. Farmers鈥� appraisal of their current situation and outlook for the upcoming year were much weaker than last month. Weaker sentiment translated into a less optimistic view of farmland values as fewer farmers said they looked for farmland values to rise over the next 12 months. Nineteen percent of respondents to this month鈥檚 survey reported discussing leasing farmland for solar energy production with a company, and 8% of farmers who look for farmland values to rise in the upcoming year pointed to energy production on farmland as a supporting factor.

Source:

After strengthening during the last half of 2023, the Farm Financial Performance Index recorded its weakest reading since May 2023. The 7-point decline from December to January was primarily driven by a shift in expectations, moving away from anticipating income to remain steady in the upcoming year as it was in 2023, towards expecting income to weaken. The percentage of producers expecting weaker financial performance rose from 20% in December to 31% in January, while those expecting incomes to be about the same fell from 63% to 53%. In a related question, producers expressed two key reasons for farm financial performance to weaken in the year ahead. More producers this month cited lower crop and/or livestock prices as top concerns than at any point since January of last year when the question about upcoming year concerns was first introduced in a barometer survey. For the first time, the percentage of producers choosing lower crop/livestock prices (28%) matched the percentage of producers who chose higher input costs. This alignment indicates that U.S. farmers are worried about a possible cost/price squeeze leading to lower farm incomes.

Unsurprisingly, given producers鈥� concern about farm incomes, the Farm Capital Investment Index fell to 35, 8 points lower than in December. Fewer producers who think now is a bad time to make large investments attributed rising interest rates as the reason this month, reversing a trend evident throughout much of 2023 when concerns about higher interest rates were increasing. This month more farmers pointed to high prices for machinery and construction as a reason to hold off on making investments. Among producers who think now is a good time for large investments, more producers this month pointed to their farms鈥� expansion opportunities while fewer farmers cited the increase in dealers鈥� farm machinery inventories as a reason to invest.

Starting in 2020, the January survey has asked producers if they expect their farm鈥檚 operating loan in the upcoming year to be larger, about the same or smaller than the previous year. This year, more producers said they expect their operating loan to be about the same as last year while fewer producers said they expect to have a larger operating loan. Among producers anticipating a larger operating loan, 61% said it was because of an increase in input costs, down from 80% who pointed to high input costs last year. This year, 23% of respondents said their loan size rose due to their farm鈥檚 expansion, up from 15% in 2023.

The Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index dropped to 115, 6 points lower than in December, while the long-term index remained virtually unchanged at 150. Since the index was still above 100, it indicates that more producers in the survey expect farmland values to rise in the upcoming year compared to those expecting values to decline. However, digging into the survey responses used to compute the short-term index reveals an interesting trend. The proportion of producers anticipating a decline in this year鈥檚 farmland values in their area rose to 16% in January, up from the 10% who felt that way as recently as October. At the same time, the percentage of producers expecting higher farmland values fell from 35% to 31%. When corn-soybean growers were asked about farmland cash rental rates in 2024 vs. 2023, results were similar to those obtained last summer. Just over one-fifth of respondents (22%) expect rates to rise while a large majority (72%) expect no change in cash rental rates. Among those who expect to see rental rates rise, nearly half (46%) expect cash rental rates to rise less than 5%.

Starting in 2021, barometer surveys have periodically included questions about payments for capturing carbon. In this month鈥檚 survey, 8% of respondents said they have engaged in discussions about carbon capture. Reviewing nine barometer surveys conducted in 2021, 2022 and 2023 that included this question, the percentage of producers who discussed carbon contracts with a company ranged from a low of 2.6% to a high of 9%, suggesting relatively consistent interest among producers in this regard. A majority of producers (61%) who reported discussions with companies this month said they were offered a payment rate of less than $10 per metric ton, while 12% of respondents were offered a rate of $30 or more per ton.

Wrapping Up

Declining prices for key commodities weighed on agricultural producer sentiment in January. The percentage of producers citing lower prices for crops and livestock as a top issue this month matched the percentage indicating input prices as a top concern. Previously, the response 鈥渉igher input prices鈥� was consistently chosen by producers as their top concern. The combination of high input costs and declining commodity prices generated a weaker financial performance outlook for 2024 and a weaker capital investment index. When asked to compare their farms鈥� operating loan size in 2024 to 2023, fewer producers than a year ago expected a larger loan. Among those anticipating an increase in loan size, fewer farms attributed it to rising input costs with more farms pointing to an increase in their operation鈥檚 size as a key reason.

Source:

The Current Conditions Index for December was 112, while the Future Expectations Index was 115. All three indices were weaker than in December 2022, with the Ag Economy Barometer falling 10% below a year earlier.  Additionally, the current and future indices were 17% and 6%, respectively, below last year. Looking ahead to 2024, U.S. farmers inflation expectations are markedly lower than they were at the start of 2023. The December Ag Economy Barometer survey was conducted from December 4-8, 2023.

In December, farmers perceived continued improvement in their farms鈥� financial performance as the Farm Financial Performance Index rose by 2 points compared to a month earlier. Since late summer, the index has climbed 11 points and was 21 points higher than in May when the index reached its low point for the year. This month鈥檚 improvement in the financial performance index coincided with USDA鈥檚 upward revision in late November of their forecast for 2023 net farm income. Although USDA still forecasts a sharp drop in net farm income from 2022鈥檚 record high level, the November estimate for 2023鈥檚 inflation-adjusted net farm income was $10 billion higher than the forecast USDA issued on August 31.

High input costs continue to be the primary source of concern for U.S. farmers. However, over the course of the year, there was a marked shift regarding producers鈥� apprehensions. In January, only 16% of farmers in the barometer survey pointed to the risk of 鈥渓ower crop and/or livestock prices鈥� as one of their biggest concerns. This changed as 2023 unfolded, and by December, just over one-fourth of respondents (26%) said the risk of lower prices for crops and livestock was a big concern. The other major concern for the upcoming year cited by producers was 鈥渞ising interest rates,鈥� chosen this month by 24% of survey respondents.

Wrapping Up

Farmer sentiment bottomed out in September and recovered modestly this fall as the Ag Economy Barometer closed out the year with an index reading of 114. The sentiment improvement was driven primarily by farmers鈥� improved perception of current conditions on their farms as the Current Conditions Index rose 14% from September to December. At year-end, U.S. farmers still pointed to input costs as their top concern for the year ahead, but the percentage of farmers choosing the risk of lower crop and/or livestock prices rose from just 16% in January to 26% in December.

Inflation expectations among farmers moderated during 2023. Compared to a year earlier, far fewer producers expect inflation to exceed 6% in the new year, and a large majority look for inflation to average less than 4% in 2024. Finally, in December, farmers expressed a somewhat more sanguine view of interest rates than they did in late 2022 with just over one-third of survey respondents indicating they expect prime interest rates to decline in 2024. 

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Farm Financial Performance: Although producer sentiment weakened in August, producers鈥� rating of farm financial conditions changed little this month, as the Farm Financial Performance Index declined just one point to a reading of 86. However, producers鈥� perspectives on farm financial conditions were noticeably weaker than a year earlier when the index stood at 99. Among producers with a negative view of the investment climate, the increase in prices for farm machinery and new construction along with rising interest rates were the two most commonly cited reasons for their negative view. In a related question, over half (60%) of producers in this month鈥檚 survey said they expect interest rates to rise in the upcoming year.

Top Concerns for Farming Operations: When asked about top concerns for their farming operations in the next 12 months, producers continue to point to higher input prices and rising interest rates as their top two concerns. Higher input prices was chosen by one out of three (34%) and rising interest rates was chosen by one out of four (24%) survey respondents as a top concern. Even though crop prices weakened significantly this summer, producers ranked declining commodity prices as their number three concern, chosen by one out of five (20%) producers.

Usage of Carbon Contracts: Interest about usage of carbon contracts in row-crop agriculture remains high. This month鈥檚 survey posed questions about carbon contracts to corn and soybean growers. In the August survey, 6% of corn and soybean growers said they have engaged in discussions with companies about receiving payments to capture carbon on their farms, while just 2% said they had signed a carbon contract. Nearly half (47%) of the farms who discussed contract terms with a company said they were offered a payment rate of $10 to $20 per metric ton of carbon captured. Among the farms who engaged in discussions but chose not to sign a carbon contract, half of them said it was because the payment level was too low.

Summary: Farmer sentiment dipped in August with farmers weakening perception of current conditions on their farms providing the impetus for weaker sentiment. Although farmers reported little change in their farms鈥� financial condition compared to a month earlier, conditions were reported to be weaker than a year earlier. Six out of ten farmers in this month鈥檚 survey said they expect interest rates to rise over the next year which, along with rising prices for farm machinery and new construction, was cited as a reason for a weaker investment climate. Despite concerns about rising interest rates, producers remain cautiously optimistic about farmland values in both the short-run and longer-term.

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